A very strong El Niño is shaping up for winter 2026-27, and AccuWeather's long-range team says the American West is where skiers should point their trip planning. NOAA put the odds at 83 percent that this event will outdo every El Niño in its records back to 1950 during the October-December window. 'Super' isn't an official scientific term — it's shorthand for 'very strong' — but the strength matters because it makes classic El Niño patterns more likely to show up.
Those patterns work like this: unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific nudges the jet stream south, turning it into a storm highway aimed at California and the southern US. Northern states, meanwhile, tend to run warmer and drier.
For skiers, that means California could get hammered with feet of mountain snow as a series of atmospheric rivers rolls in, mostly in the middle and late season. The catch: all that storminess could mean travel headaches and flooding or landslide risks at lower elevations. Lead forecaster Paul Pastelok still calls the West 'the better bet,' but notes Utah and Colorado should offer smoother logistics than storm-battered California.
Utah's Wasatch Range sits on the favorable side of the storm track too. AccuWeather expects Salt Lake City to pick up 50-65 inches this winter, a dramatic swing from last season's measly 3.7 inches — the city's least snowy winter on record. That bodes well for the cottonwoods: Alta, Snowbird and Park City all draw on that same storm flow.
Colorado and the Central and Southern Rockies are forecast for an early snow start, with the Four Corners region turning cooler and wetter by February. Nevada and the wider Great Basin should also get above-average snowfall and an early season opening. The Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies look patchier, with dry stretches interrupting the snow.
The Northeast story is rougher. Warm spells, rain and ice could sink smaller, lower-elevation areas. The hope for Eastern skiers lies at higher-elevation resorts in northern Vermont and New Hampshire, plus a historical pattern: three previous Super El Niño winters delivered major Northeast snowstorms in late January or early February.
One big caveat before you lock in a weeklong trip. Seasonal forecasts are good at spotting broad regional patterns, not nailing a specific storm at a specific mountain on a specific date. Pastelok points to 2015-16, when a strong El Niño pushed the jet stream further north than expected and left Southern California and the Four Corners short on snow. Warm temperatures can also turn would-be powder into rain. AccuWeather will refresh its forecast in mid-November, which is worth watching before you book.
