If you haven't booked your Thanksgiving or Christmas flights yet, the clock is ticking. Airfares have climbed an average of 23% since a spike in global oil prices earlier in the year, and holiday travel is taking the brunt of it. Booking app Hopper's forecast puts domestic Thanksgiving flights about 31% above last year's prices, with Christmas and New Year's trips up roughly 23%.
The modest silver lining: fares haven't spiked further since August — they've stayed high but stable. That said, waiting is a gamble. Last year, both cash and award prices jumped sharply in the final weeks before the holidays, and Delta's CEO Ed Bastian told CNBC he sees no let-up in demand. Translation: book now, but keep some flexibility — most major US carriers let you change or cancel and rebook if the fare drops later. Just steer clear of basic economy fares, which lock you out of changes, and note that new AI tools can automatically grab the savings if prices fall after you've paid.
Timing matters as much as timing your booking. For Thanksgiving, Points Path data flags Monday, Nov. 23 as the cheapest departure day, with returns cheapest on Black Friday or the following Tuesday. Avoid Sunday, Nov. 29 — it's running about 40% pricier than Black Friday and was, in 2025, the busiest day in US airport history. (Fun counterpoint: Thanksgiving Day itself was the quietest.) For the year-end holidays, weekends either side of Christmas plus Sunday, Jan. 3 look priciest; midweek dates before and after Christmas are your best bet.
Where you fly matters too. Going's data shows the Midwest seeing the biggest Thanksgiving price jumps, while the Northeast takes the worst hit at Christmas.
A few smart moves can soften the blow. Search widely on Google Flights or Kayak across airlines, dates and nearby airports rather than fixating on one route — or flip the process entirely: check fares to many destinations first, then pick the one your budget likes. If you're paying with miles, beware dynamic pricing — award rates have spiked too — and compare valuations before burning points. Partner programs can be the loophole: Alaska's Atmos Rewards can book American flights, Air France-KLM's Flying Blue can book Delta, and Aeroplan points work on United. Also dig out any expiring hotel or airline credits before 31 December, and put free checked bags on your airline card to good use with a suitcase full of winter gear.
One last safeguard: pay with a credit card that includes travel insurance. Cancellations have hit a four-year high in 2026, and under new federal rules airlines may not cover your hotel or meals when things go wrong — a card claim could recover hundreds of dollars.
Who's this for? Anyone still holding out on holiday bookings. The window for cheap-ish fares is closing fast, but flexible dates, creative award redemptions and the right card can still keep costs in check.
Story via The Points Guy.
