Late September has come and gone without a single hurricane forming in the Atlantic basin. That is unusual, and it is good news for anyone with a trip booked to Belize, the Bay Islands or the wider Caribbean rim. But the season runs until November 30, and forecasters are quick to point out that a calm first three months guarantees nothing about October.
As of September 29, 2026, tropical storms had formed — the National Hurricane Center was tracking a weakened Tropical Depression Fay and Tropical Storm Hanna out over open Atlantic water — but none had managed to reach hurricane strength. Neither system posed any threat to Belize, where the San Pedro Sun reports residents are being urged to keep following the National Meteorological Service of Belize and the NHC through the rest of the season.
The likely culprit behind the quiet Atlantic is El Niño. NOAA explains that the climate pattern tends to increase vertical wind shear over the Atlantic — strong winds at altitude that essentially tear developing storms apart before they can organise. The agency's outlook puts the odds on a below-normal Atlantic season this year. That is a statistical lean, not a promise: even in below-normal seasons, hurricanes can and do form late.
The flip side of the pattern is playing out in the Pacific. Hurricane Polo slammed across Mexico's Baja California Sur peninsula and came ashore in the mainland state of Sonora on September 29, bringing damaging winds, heavy rain and warnings of flooding and mudslides as it moved inland. Hurricane Nolo was active near Hawaii in the central Pacific, and Tropical Storm Rachel was crossing the eastern Pacific. El Niño tends to work both ways — quieter in the Atlantic, busier in the eastern and central Pacific — though forecasters caution it never determines the fate of any individual storm.
Why it matters for travellers: if you are planning a Caribbean or Belize beach trip, the odds currently favour a smoother season than usual, but October is historically one of the Atlantic's most active months regardless of the overall trend. Anyone travelling to Mexico's Pacific coast or Hawaii should note the opposite signal and keep a closer eye on forecasts. Either way, travel insurance with hurricane cover is worth the small outlay for trips booked through November, and it is sensible to know your hotel's cancellation policy before the deposit goes down.
