Forecasters are paying unusually close attention to the Pacific this year. El Niño is officially underway — conditions have been in place since spring 2026 and are strengthening — and some models suggest it could mature into a rare "super" event, the unofficial label for when sea temperatures in the central tropical Pacific run roughly 2°C above normal. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology already reports sea surface temperatures at record levels, up 2.81°C. Events of this strength happen only about once a decade and historically have brought simultaneous droughts, floods and fires across multiple continents.
Because El Niño starts as a patch of unusually warm water in the tropical Pacific but ripples outward through global wind patterns, its effects show up in places that seem unconnected. The pattern typically peaks between November and February, with the biggest impacts expected around December 2026 and into spring 2027.
For travellers, the picture varies sharply by destination. Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia may see suppressed rainfall — deceptively pleasant holiday weather at first, but with a rising risk of forest and peatland fires later, sending haze towards Singapore and Malaysia. East Africa's short rains (October to December) tend to be heavier, turning safari plains gloriously green and drawing migratory birds, but also turning dirt tracks to mud and occasionally closing small bush airstrips. Southern Africa could trend hot and dry, which concentrates wildlife around shrinking waterholes — great for sightings, harsher for animals and communities if drought persists.
Reef destinations face perhaps the most serious concern: the world has only just emerged from the most extensive coral bleaching event on record, which hit over 80% of reef area, and further Pacific heat could stress weakened reefs before they recover. Not everywhere suffers, though. A quieter Atlantic hurricane season is possible for the Caribbean, California's ski resorts often do well for snow, and Peru and Ecuador may see heavy rain — good for some, disruptive for road travel.
For UK travellers, the domestic outlook is comparatively mild: a higher chance of stormy weather from October to December, then possible cold snaps with snow and ice in early 2027. Europe may even buck the usual pattern with warmer-than-normal conditions building towards spring.
The practical takeaway: book trips with a little flexibility over the 2026–27 winter, keep an eye on forecasts for Southeast Asia haze, East African rains and reef health advisories, and consider travel insurance that covers weather disruption. El Niño doesn't guarantee bad weather anywhere — stronger events just make certain outcomes more likely, and scientists see this one as a preview of the kind of extremes a warming world will produce more often.
