Forecasters rarely use the word "historic" lightly, but the Climate Prediction Center is giving this winter's El Niño a 100 percent chance of persisting through at least March, with better-than-90-percent odds of a very strong event. There's even a 75 percent chance it becomes the strongest El Niño ever measured, going back to 1950. In short: we're in uncharted territory, and skiers planning early-season trips should pay attention.

The mechanics are fairly simple. Warmer water pooling in the eastern Pacific supercharges the Hadley circulation and pushes the subtropical jet stream south, steering storms toward California, Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico, while the northern tier — Washington, Idaho, Montana and western Canada — tends to miss out. Warmer air also holds more moisture, which sets the stage for atmospheric rivers. The signs are already there: flash floods hit the Grand Canyon last month, and the remnants of Hurricane Polo (itself a product of El Niño warmth) soaked drought-stricken New Mexico.

That moisture is good news only if it falls as snow, and that's where altitude matters. Utah and Colorado's high-elevation resorts are well placed to catch snow from warmer storms, and Mammoth Mountain can often pick up snow while lower California resorts get rain. Arizona and New Mexico are primed to overperform, though options are thin — Taos is the only resort in the region with more than 1,000 skiable acres.

The north faces a tougher picture. Canada is forecast for below-average precipitation, with confidence growing the farther north you go — a concern for a country that logs roughly 20 million skier visits a year. That said, places like Whistler, Revelstoke and Whitewater are so snowy in a normal year that even a weak season can deliver plenty of powder, especially if cold holds. Big Sky and Mt. Baker sit in the same boat.

New England is the wildcard. Storm tracks favour more precipitation for the region, but its resorts lack the altitude buffer — if storms pull in Gulf and Atlantic moisture without cold air, they bring rain rather than snow. Whether the cold shows up depends on the Arctic Oscillation, which is essentially impossible to predict more than a couple of weeks out.

One caveat worth keeping in mind: seasonal forecasts are clues, not promises. The models did nail last Southern Hemisphere winter — heavy snow and road closures at Portillo in Chile, a washout in Australia, a decent season in New Zealand's Southern Lakes — which lends this year's outlook some credibility. But one or two storms can swing an entire season, and after a record-warm 2025-26 winter, heat remains the main threat.

The practical takeaway for travellers: if you can hold off, the strongest part of winter will likely come after the holidays, so January trips to Utah or Colorado look like the smartest early bets. Early-season skiing before Christmas is a lottery this year, and booking the far north or Canada for December carries real risk.