The world is officially in an El Niño, and not an ordinary one. When the UK Met Office confirmed the event in June, forecast models quickly suggested something unusual: the US NOAA gives it better than an 80% chance of ranking among the strongest El Niño events since 1950, and a 97% chance it persists into early 2027. Sailing forecaster Chris Bedford, speaking to Yachting World, calls it a 'super' El Niño precisely because it falls outside everything we've previously measured.
Quick refresher: El Niño is the warm phase of the Pacific's natural climate cycle, when trade winds weaken and warm water sloshes east towards the Americas. Its mirror phase, La Niña, follows later. The whole cycle runs two to eight years, with the El Niño stretch typically lasting nine to 18 months and peaking between October and February — this one is forecast to peak around Christmas.
For anyone planning an offshore passage, the Pacific is where it bites hardest. Meteorologist Arnaud Monges of PredictWind warns that crossings to the Galápagos, French Polynesia, Fiji and Australia will likely be slower and less predictable, with trade winds weaker, less consistent, or occasionally reversed in the western Pacific. Convection is also shifting into the mid-Pacific around French Polynesia and Hawaii, bringing more squalls, thunderstorms, sudden wind shifts and a higher chance of tropical cyclones in the central Pacific. That doesn't mean avoid the area — it means using forecasts to pick the good windows, which may be shorter than in past seasons.
The Atlantic story is more of a mixed bag. El Niño usually suppresses Caribbean hurricane activity, so an Europe-to-Caribbean crossing could actually be easier this season. The catch comes on the return: El Niño raises the odds of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, pushing winter storm tracks south. Router Sebastian Wache expects more Atlantic hurricanes as El Niño eventually flips to La Niña, and notes the safe window for a Caribbean-to-Europe run next spring will be narrow — too early and you risk Newfoundland lows, too late and hurricane season looms.
There's a bigger backdrop too. Global sea surface temperatures hit a record 21.1°C this August, and oceans are warming roughly 4.5 times faster than in the late 1980s. Climate change doesn't necessarily cause El Niño, but it amplifies its effects, and separate concerns about a slowing AMOC current could further scramble North Atlantic weather in the years ahead. For sailors and, by extension, anyone booking a sailing holiday or crewed charter, the takeaway is simple: don't assume this season will look like the last one, build in extra time, and check forecasts more often than you think you need to.
