A new forecast from World Travel Market and Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics company) predicts that global international arrivals will hit an all-time high of 1.57 billion by the end of 2026. Despite cost-of-living squeezes and this year's conflict in the Middle East, the report's authors say travellers are "more active in 2026 than ever before", with leisure travel holding firm as a budget priority.
Growth is not stopping there. Arrivals are expected to rise eight per cent in 2027, with momentum continuing through 2032. The industry is also bouncing back from crises roughly twice as fast as it did two decades ago — recovery now takes about half the time.
The regional picture is interesting. The Middle East, which took a hit from this year's conflict, is forecast to see the biggest jump: a 43 per cent surge in international arrivals in 2027 as disruption eases. Asia and Oceania follow with 11 per cent growth, Latin America at seven per cent, Africa at six per cent, and Europe at five per cent. North America trails at four per cent.
Money is flowing too. In-destination spending climbed nine per cent year on year, reaching US$7.8 trillion (about £5.79 trillion). One shift to watch: cost pressures pushed travellers towards destinations closer to home this year, denting long-haul trips — but those longer journeys are expected to rebound in 2027.
The report also reveals how people actually travel. Three in four say an annual leisure holiday is an important priority, even when household budgets are tight. And 58 per cent of international travellers took a trip abroad in the past two years specifically for an event — a festival, sports fixture or cultural celebration. Event-driven travel is clearly no longer niche.
On AI, travellers are cautiously curious. Most are happy to let AI tools search and recommend, but far fewer trust it to complete a booking on its own.
For holidaymakers, the takeaway is straightforward: demand is high and climbing, so popular destinations will feel busier in 2026 and beyond. Booking earlier, travelling shoulder-season, or choosing the faster-growing regions — the Middle East's comeback, Asia and Latin America — may deliver better value and fewer crowds than the same old European summer hotspots.
