The world's largest inland body of water is losing ground at an alarming rate. At the Caspian Ecological Summit in Avaza, Turkmenistan, on October 9, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev laid out just how serious the situation has become — and what the five Caspian countries plan to do about it.
The numbers are stark. The sea's surface area has shrunk by more than 16,000 square kilometres since 2000. The Caspian seal, the region's iconic endemic species, has collapsed from roughly one million animals a century ago to about 270,000 today. Tokayev warned that without urgent measures, the decline could spiral into a large-scale environmental catastrophe — one he explicitly compared to the near-death of the Aral Sea, the Soviet-era disaster that remains the region's great ecological cautionary tale.
What's being proposed? Kazakhstan wants a shared digital platform that pulls together satellite data, AI forecasting and real-time monitoring of water levels, shoreline changes, pollution and river flows. There's also a new International Biodiversity Fund focused on protecting rare species, a push to crack down on poaching and illegal fishing, and support for using the Caspian Sea Research Institute (established in Kazakhstan in 2024) as a scientific hub. Azerbaijan's proposal for a deputy-prime-minister-level commission on falling water levels got a warm reception, and Caspian states have backed Kazakhstan's plan for an interstate water conservation programme.
The stakes go well beyond wildlife. Tokayev cited projections that parts of the region could warm by 5 degrees Celsius by 2100, and World Bank estimates suggesting nearly 2.5 million people may face climate-driven displacement by 2050. Shrinking water already threatens ports, shipping, fisheries and energy infrastructure — the economic backbone of Caspian coastal towns. As a counter-example of what works, he pointed to the North Aral Sea, where restoration efforts have grown the sea's area by 36% and revived fish stocks and local economies.
For travellers, this matters if the Caspian is on your list — whether that's Kazakhstan's beach resorts near Aktau, Turkmenistan's Avaza zone, Iran's Gilan coast or the Azerbaijani shoreline around Baku. Falling water levels are reshaping beaches, ports and wetlands that draw birdwatchers and anglers, and the pace of change over the next decade will determine what these coasts look like. It's also a rare case of five countries agreeing on anything, so progress is worth watching.
