Australia is set to replace certainty with chance for backpackers. Immigration Minister Tony Burke announced at the National Press Club that second and third-year Working Holiday Maker visas will be capped and allocated by a ballot from November — and four of the country's biggest industry groups are pushing back hard.
The numbers behind the concern: second-year places will be capped at 45,000, a drop of more than 21 per cent on 2025 approvals, while third-year places fall to just 5,000 — a cut of over 80 per cent. All up, that's roughly 38,000 fewer visas than last year, which the Tourism & Transport Forum, National Farmers' Federation, Accommodation Australia and the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry estimate strips about $1.86 billion in direct wages, on top of the $4.4 billion in spending working holiday makers bring into the economy.
Under the new rules, travellers only become eligible for the ballot after completing the required regional work — 88 days for a second year, 179 days for a third. That's where the industry sees a design flaw. If a backpacker has roughly a one-in-six shot at a third year, the incentive to do months of regional work in the first place weakens, and the argument is that many will simply choose other countries where the path is clearer. TTF chief executive Margy Osmond called it a case of the government replacing certainty with a lottery, warning that businesses got just weeks of notice and no consultation.
Accommodation Australia's James Goodwin said the change lands hardest on hotels and regional operators already short-staffed, and argued for transparent, merit-based caps rather than a random draw. ACCI's Andrew McKellar went further, framing the third-year cut as shrinking the whole program by a third — tens of thousands of workers gone from the national workforce every year.
The four bodies are now demanding answers before the November start: how the ballot will run, whether places will be split by visa subclass or nationality, and whether backpackers already in Australia who have finished their required regional work will be transitioned under the old rules.
Why should travellers care? If you're planning a working holiday in Australia and hoping to stay two or three years, the rules are changing underneath you from November. Doing your regional days may no longer guarantee anything, and anyone mid-program has no confirmed transition arrangements yet. For the tourism industry, the bigger worry is reputational: backpackers who feel shut out may spend their working years — and their travel budgets — in Canada, the UK or elsewhere instead. Until the government clarifies how the ballot works, anyone counting on a second or third Australian year should keep a close eye on official announcements before locking in regional work plans. — Karryon
