Global tourism is on track for its biggest year yet, according to the World Travel Market Global Travel Report. Visitor spending is forecast to climb 9% in 2026 to a staggering US$7.8 trillion, even with fuel prices up, several ongoing conflicts and household budgets under strain. The message from the data is simple: people would rather cut back on things than on holidays.

Oxford Economics, which contributed research to the report, points to a broader shift in how people spend. Experiences — a memorable trip, a safari, a city break — are increasingly winning out over material purchases, and that preference is propping up demand across the industry.

New markets are playing a big part too. Rising disposable incomes in India and China are expected to bring roughly 24 million additional households into the international travel pool over the next six years, a slow-burn change that will reshape where the world's tourists come from.

But there's a catch for long-haul destinations: people are staying closer to home. Travel within travellers' own regions grew 3% in 2026, while trips between global regions — including long-haul flights — fell by 3%. Pricier airfares and safety worries are pushing holidaymakers toward nearer options. If you've been eyeing a far-flung trip, booking early and being flexible on dates matters more than it used to.

The regional picture is uneven. The Middle East saw the steepest drop, with international arrivals down 40%, largely tied to the war involving Iran and the knock-on effect on travel confidence and flight connectivity. Analysts expect a rebound in 2027 if geopolitical conditions ease.

Africa, meanwhile, is having a moment at the top end. Ultra-luxury travel on the continent is the fastest-growing segment, with traveller numbers and spending up more than 10% to 15%, according to Taqi Moledina, chair of the African Travel and Tourism Association. Kenya's safari circuit and gorilla trekking in Uganda are drawing high-spending visitors after distinctive, nature-based experiences.

So what does this mean for anyone planning a trip? Expect busy peak seasons and firm prices in 2026, especially for short-haul and regional getaways where demand is concentrated. Consider shoulder-season travel or under-the-radar destinations if you want value, and don't assume long-haul fares will soften — airlines are catering to a market that's spending closer to home. On the flip side, the surge in luxury demand across Africa means more high-end lodges and experiences, but mid-range travellers shouldn't be squeezed out entirely; booking well ahead remains the best strategy.

The overall outlook is upbeat: despite conflict and cost pressures, the appetite for travel isn't going anywhere, and the money is following the experiences.