Spain received a record 97 million foreign visitors last year — up 3.5% on 2024 — and the government expects roughly the same growth again this year. But there's a catch for anyone hoping to catch a cheap flight to Madrid, Barcelona or the Balearics: oil.
Industry and Tourism Minister Jordi Hereu has advised travellers to buy their airline tickets as soon as possible, warning that rising crude prices triggered by the war involving Iran will eventually filter through to fares. His reasoning is straightforward: airlines are still burning kerosene bought weeks ago under earlier contracts. Once that cheaper stock runs out, the higher cost of fuel — up around 50% since the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28 — will be passed on to passengers.
"It's already clear that prices have risen and this could affect demand," Hereu told Spanish business daily Expansion, adding that Spanish and European authorities were working to prevent fuel shortages. Spain, the euro zone's fourth-largest economy, says it is better placed than most, with a larger kerosene reserve and higher refining capacity than many other countries. The minister's worry is less about Spain's own fuel supply and more about the countries that send tourists there: if their airports and airlines run into problems, Spain's visitor numbers will feel it too.
The numbers behind the warning are significant. Campaign group Transport & Environment calculates that higher oil prices have already added more than $100 to the cost of long-haul flights departing from Europe, and that cost has to land somewhere — usually on the ticket price. Short-haul routes within Europe, the kind most holidaymakers to Spain take, may see smaller absolute increases, but even a modest jump per seat adds up for families booking several seats at once.
So what should a traveller actually do? If you already know you're flying to Spain this summer — or anywhere long-haul from Europe, for that matter — the minister's advice is essentially: don't wait. Fares are being priced with fuel hedging lag, meaning today's ticket may not reflect tomorrow's fuel bill. Booking earlier rather than later locks in a price before airlines reprice their inventory. Being flexible on dates and airports also helps, as does watching for sales, since airlines may discount to protect load factors if demand starts to soften.
The bigger picture for holidaymakers: Spain remains the most popular overseas destination for many European travellers, and the government shows no sign of expecting a collapse in demand. But this is a rare case of a tourism minister openly telling people to book now — a signal that officials expect fares to climb, not fall, in the months ahead. If a Spanish beach break has been on your list for 2026, the cheapest window to secure it may be the one you're in right now.
