The 31st UN climate conference is now underway at the Antalya Expo Centre in Türkiye, running from 9 to 20 November 2026, and the backdrop could hardly be more sobering. The World Meteorological Organization used the opening press conferences to reveal that the developing 2026/2027 El Niño is, in its Secretary-General Celeste Saulo's words, unlike any the agency has ever monitored — with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures forecast to reach nearly four times the threshold normally used to declare the event. Her blunt warning: prepare for another record-breaking year in 2027.
The numbers behind that warning are stark. The first nine months of 2026 averaged about 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels, the past four years are the four hottest on record, ocean heat has hit a new high for the tenth consecutive year, and global sea levels have set a record — putting an estimated 900 million people living on low-lying coastlines at growing risk. UN Climate Change chief Simon Stiell went further, calling the climate crisis a global health emergency of pandemic proportions, citing heatwaves blamed for roughly 50,000 deaths in Europe last summer and dangerous heat across India, Pakistan and much of Asia.
For the Pacific, the stakes are existential. Fourteen Pacific island countries are among the 198 parties in Antalya, pushing the message that emerged from the pre-COP hosted by Fiji and Tuvalu: keep 1.5°C within reach, speed up climate finance, and make sure no country faces climate impacts alone. Australian Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen, COP31's president of negotiations, invoked the Fijian tradition of 'talanoa' — open, honest dialogue — as the spirit needed in the negotiation rooms. Türkiye's COP president Murat Kurum framed the host's approach in three words: dialogue, consensus, action.
Why should a traveller care? Because this super El Niño will shape the conditions on the ground — and in the water — for holidays well into 2027. Expect intensified heatwaves, stronger tropical cyclones and heavier rainfall in affected regions, coral bleaching pressure on Pacific and Indo-Pacific reef destinations, and possible disruption to trips across Southeast Asia, the Pacific, Central America and parts of Africa. If a 2027 trip involves low-lying islands, reef snorkelling or peak-heat city breaks, it's worth watching how the El Niño develops through January. Meanwhile, the decisions made in Antalya over these two weeks — including health-focused climate funding through the Climate and Health Funders Coalition, which has already committed more than US$200 million — will influence how resilient your favourite destinations are in the decade ahead.
