Airlines have had a rough run: airspace closures around the Middle East earlier this year severed key Europe–Asia routes and stranded hundreds of thousands of passengers, then fuel prices climbed and pushed travel costs up with them. You might expect that to dent demand. Instead, the numbers say the opposite.
New forecasts compiled by Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, and released at World Travel Market in London, project 1.57 billion international arrivals in 2026 — a record, and 2% up on 2025. When domestic trips are counted too, total overnight visits should hit 23.9 billion. Spending is growing even faster: up 9% to roughly €6.97 trillion worldwide. The report covers more than 185 countries, and its headline message is clear — people are travelling more than ever, just differently.
Europe comes out strongest, with international arrivals forecast to rise 5% this year and leisure nights up 4%. Leisure spending across the continent, from locals and visitors alike, should reach €1.83 trillion. And the trend isn't a one-off: by 2032, Europe is expected to host 226 million more international arrivals than it will in 2026.
Part of Europe's gain is geography. Travellers are increasingly sticking closer to home — trips within the same region are up 3% globally, while long-haul, inter-regional travel is down 3%. War-related airspace closures, safety worries and cost pressures have made people cautious about where they fly, and nearby destinations feel like the safer bet. The Middle East, unsurprisingly, is the casualty: arrivals there are forecast to fall 40% this year.
Two other habits stand out. Event travel is booming — 58% of international travellers have crossed a border in the past two years for a cultural or sporting event, with the 2026 FIFA World Cup likely a factor. And budget-conscious travellers haven't stopped going; they've simply changed how and where they go, as Tourism Economics' EMEA managing director Dave Goodger puts it.
Looking ahead, 2027 could bring an 8% global jump in arrivals if the Middle East conflict doesn't escalate — the region itself might rebound by 43%, with Europe adding another 5%, Asia and Oceania 11%, Latin America 7%, Africa 6% and North America 4%. By 2032, the forecast tops out at 2.2 billion international overnight arrivals a year, assuming incomes rise and aviation and hotel capacity keep pace.
For anyone planning a trip, the practical takeaway is that 2026 will be busy, especially in Europe. Booking earlier, travelling shoulder-season and choosing less obvious destinations will get you better prices and thinner crowds. And if your route crosses the Middle East, build in flexibility — the airspace picture can still change quickly.
