A US Census Bureau report released on 7 November projects steep long-term population declines across America's island territories, with American Samoa forecast to lose 61 percent of its people by 2100 — beginning from a decline that started around 2010. The Northern Mariana Islands, whose population has been falling since 2000 and now stands at 42,527, are expected to shed another 17 percent. Guam, currently home to roughly 160,000 people, won't start shrinking until 2030 but is projected to end the century about 38 percent smaller. The US Virgin Islands fare little better, with a projected 41 percent loss.
Two forces drive the numbers: fewer babies and more departures. Fertility has dropped sharply everywhere. American Samoa's rate fell from 4.0 children per woman in 2000 to 2.1 in 2026, while the Northern Mariana Islands saw a rapid slide from 3.3 to 2.0 after 2016. Guam slipped from 3.2 in 2014 to 2.4, and the Virgin Islands from 2.5 to 1.9. Both the Virgin Islands and the Northern Marianas are already below replacement level; American Samoa is expected to drop below it in 2029, Guam in 2056.
Every territory has seen more people leave than arrive since 2000. In 2026, net migration ran at -25.1 per 1,000 residents in American Samoa, -11.2 in the Northern Marianas, -5.4 in the Virgin Islands and -4.8 in Guam. The Virgin Islands' exodus spiked between the 2010 and 2020 censuses, a period that included the closure of a major oil refinery and hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. Covid-19 travel restrictions briefly slowed departures from Guam, but outmigration has resumed. Natural decrease — deaths outnumbering births — is forecast for the Virgin Islands as early as next year and the Northern Marianas by 2089.
The report, by Sophia Magalona and Rachel J. Bacon, is part of the Census Bureau's International Database. Notably, it doesn't factor in population growth from the military buildup on Guam, and it leaves out Puerto Rico entirely, despite that island losing 11.8 percent of its population between 2010 and 2020.
Advocacy group Right to Democracy framed the findings as political, not just demographic. Co-director Adi Martínez-Román called the projections a wake-up call, arguing that unilateral federal decision-making drives displacement and that territorial communities need real power over decisions affecting their lives. Fellow co-director Neil Weare added that no one should have to leave home just to earn a living or access medical care.
For travellers, the takeaway is subtler: these islands aren't disappearing from the map anytime soon, but the communities visitors encounter are changing. Fewer residents can mean quieter beaches and more authentic encounters in places like Guam, Saipan, Tinian, Rota and Pago Pago — and a stronger incentive than ever to spend locally, since tourism dollars matter more to smaller populations. Visiting also offers a chance to understand why so many islanders move to the US mainland: limited healthcare, constrained economies and a political status that leaves residents without a full voice in Washington. A holiday here is relaxing, but it's also an education in resilience.
