A powerful El Niño is locked in across the Pacific and forecasters warn it could become the strongest such event since records began in 1950. The latest regional outlook from the 19th Pacific Islands Climate and Ocean Forum, coordinated by SPREP, confirms the pattern is firmly established, will peak between November and January, and is likely to persist through March 2027.
For anyone planning a trip to the Pacific islands over the coming months, that matters. El Niño shifts rainfall dramatically across the region. Much of the northwest Pacific — from Palau to the Marshall Islands — and a broad swathe of the southwest Pacific, from Papua New Guinea down to southern French Polynesia, can expect below-normal rainfall over the next six months. The central equatorial Pacific, from Naoero to eastern Kiribati, is favoured for above-normal rain.
The effects are already visible. In Papua New Guinea, prolonged dry spells have brought drought, water shortages and lowered rivers that are disrupting transport and industry, while frosts in the highlands have destroyed staple crops. National meteorological services across Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia report impacts emerging region-wide, and some countries are expected to feel effects well into their 2027 dry seasons even after the event itself fades.
The climate news sits alongside a busy political moment for the region. At the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in St John's, Antigua and Barbuda, Samoa's Deputy Prime Minister Mulipola Anarosa Ale Molioo and host leader Gaston Browne pressed for grant-based climate finance so small states aren't forced to borrow to recover from disasters, and Browne formally took over as Commonwealth Chair-in-Office from Samoa, which hosted CHOGM in 2024.
Why should a traveller care? If you have flights or accommodation booked in Vanuatu, Fiji, Samoa, PNG or the wider Pacific between now and March, expect drier conditions in many places, possible water restrictions and disrupted local transport — especially where river and coastal shipping matter. Drought can affect everything from hydro-powered resorts to fresh produce on the menu. The flip side: the drier, more settled weather El Niño often brings to parts of the South Pacific can mean excellent beach conditions when systems behave.
The practical advice from regional agencies is simple: check your destination's national meteorological service before you go, follow local guidance on water use, and build some flexibility into itineraries that rely on inter-island flights or boats. Travellers heading to the central Pacific — Kiribati, Nauru and neighbouring atolls — should instead prepare for wetter-than-usual conditions at the peak.
This is also a moment when travelling thoughtfully counts. Pacific communities are facing pressure on food and water security, so supporting local operators, being patient with disruptions and respecting conservation measures goes a long way.
