Kazakhstan is preparing for a future with less water, and it is doing so with sensors, shared data and a lot of diplomacy. Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov revealed in late October that forecasts point to Central Asia losing around 15 billion cubic metres of water availability by 2040 — a projection, not a promise, but one the government is planning around with five-, 10- and 15-year scenarios for all eight of its river basins, including models where water supply drops by 50% or even 75%.
The country is not yet in deficit — its rivers carry roughly 100 billion cubic metres a year against about 25 billion cubic metres of actual use — but nearly half of that river flow originates outside its borders, arriving from China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In the agricultural south the dependence is extreme: about 90% of the Syr Darya water reaching Turkistan and Kyzylorda regions is transboundary, as is three-quarters of the Chu River supply for Zhambyl.
Kazakhstan's answer is transparency. Working with Uzbekistan, it has automated water accounting at ten stations along the Syr Darya — five on each side — with German development agency GIZ helping draw up the plans. Both countries can now view identical real-time readings, which the minister says removes arguments over who sent or received what. A wider plan to digitise the entire Syr Darya basin, agreed in January 2026 with Tajikistan on board and Kyrgyzstan potentially to follow, would extend that principle across the whole river system. Kazakhstan also plans to open parts of its own national water data to the public in 2027.
The urgency is rooted in recent history. A brutal 2021 drought in Mangystau left more than 1,700 livestock dead across two regions, and in 2023 low inflows from Kyrgyz reservoirs — down to 60 million cubic metres at the Kirovsk Reservoir against 300 million the year before — put around 4,000 hectares of onions and sugar beets in Zhambyl at risk. Notably, that shortage traced back to poor snowfall as much as any cross-border dispute, which is precisely why officials argue that rules alone cannot guarantee supply when the climate turns dry.
At home, agriculture consumes roughly 60% of Kazakhstan's water, so efficiency is the other lever. Water-saving technology covered more than 700,000 hectares in 2026, saving about a billion cubic metres, with a 2030 target of 1.3 million hectares and total savings of around 10 billion cubic metres through reservoirs, upgrades and reuse.
For travellers, this is background worth knowing if you plan to explore southern Kazakhstan — the Silk Road cities of Turkistan, the Aral region or the steppes around Kyzylorda — where water shapes both farming landscapes and local livelihoods. It is also a reminder that Central Asia, often framed as a region of rivalry, is quietly building cooperative infrastructure instead. The ministry's own line: drinking water always comes first, and, in the minister's words, water unites the region rather than dividing it.
