If Kazakhstan is on your winter list — think Almaty's ski slopes, frozen steppe landscapes or the ice-skating rink at Medeu — the season ahead looks friendlier than usual. The national weather service Kazhydromet issued its winter forecast on 16 October, and the headline is simple: above-normal temperatures almost everywhere, with the snowiest surprises saved for February.
December kicks things off roughly 2°C warmer than the long-term average across the whole country. Snowfall should sit near normal in most regions, though the north, northeast and east are in for a bit more, while the Kyzylorda Region in the south may see less than usual.
January stays mild too, with temperatures 1-2°C above the norm across most of the territory and near-normal readings in the northwest. Western Kazakhstan could pick up extra precipitation, while parts of the south and southeast stay drier than average.
February is the month to watch. Forecasters expect it to run 1-3°C warmer than usual across much of the country, and it's also when precipitation is likely to top the norm in many regions — meaning late winter could deliver the heaviest snow days of the season.
That said, milder doesn't mean easy. Kazhydromet flags significant temperature swings through the season, which can create an ice crust inside the snowpack — slippery on sidewalks and a genuine consideration if you're planning any winter hiking or backcountry skiing. Blizzards, strong winds, fog and icy roads are all on the table, especially in the northern and central regions, so anyone driving between cities should keep an eye on road conditions and build slack into itineraries.
For travellers, the practical read is this: you won't need the extreme cold-weather kit that a brutal Kazakh winter demands — late January in Astana can normally push past -30°C, and this year should feel noticeably kinder — but you should still treat the forecast as a nudge toward flexibility. Book refundable domestic transport, pack layers and grippy footwear, and consider timing a ski trip to Almaty's Shymbulak or the Medeu rink for February, when snowfall is likely to be at its best.
The flip side of a warm, wet February is that thaw-freeze cycles can make city pavements treacherous, so leave the smooth-soled boots at home. City breaks in Almaty or the capital work fine in these conditions; serious steppe or mountain expeditions are better saved for another season.
