Just when you'd be packing a light jacket for an autumn city break, a fresh heat dome is lining up over Europe — and Croatia sits right inside it.
Forecasters at Severe Weather Europe expect a strong high-pressure system to build over the continent at the end of September 2026, pulling warm air north from the Mediterranean and North Africa. In parts of western, central and northern Europe, air temperatures aloft will run 8 to 12 degrees above the seasonal norm. At ground level, many areas will top 25C, some pushing past 30C — remarkable for the turn of the month.
How a heat dome works: the high-pressure system acts like a lid. Air sinks toward the ground, compresses and warms further, and cloud formation gets squeezed out. The result is stable, dry weather that can lock in for days or even weeks. In this case, warm air reaches southern Europe and the Balkans from Saturday and the start of the following week.
For Croatia specifically, expect highs of roughly 22 to 26C on Sunday 27 September, climbing to around 27C in parts of the country by Tuesday 29 September. Northern Italy — especially the Po Valley and Tuscany — plus the central Balkans and Greece will see the sharpest anomalies, with readings of 28 to 30C.
Elsewhere on the continent, the extremes get bigger. Central and southern Spain and Portugal will exceed 35C, possibly nudging 40C from Thursday to Saturday. France hits the mid-30s, the Benelux countries sit near 30C over the weekend, and Germany follows with 27 to 29C. England gets a shorter warm spell of 25 to 28C, while Ireland and Scotland stay closer to 15C.
The flip side: western Ireland, Scotland and southwestern Norway face a soggy Atlantic flow, with locally more than 150 millimetres of rain possible by early October. If the high keeps expanding north and east into October, the biggest departures from normal could show up in Sweden and Finland.
Why it matters for travellers: late September is shoulder season gold in Croatia — fewer crowds, warm sea, lower prices — and this pattern effectively extends the beach and terrace season. Coastal towns like Split, Zadar and Dubrovnik will feel more like midsummer than autumn, and hiking in the national parks stays comfortable rather than scorched. If you'd rather dodge the heat, the wet Atlantic fringe of Ireland, Scotland and Norway is your escape hatch; pack proper waterproofs either way.
Credit: Total Croatia
