If you've booked an October trip to Dubai or Abu Dhabi expecting the worst of summer to be over, prepare for a warmer welcome than usual. The UAE's National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has confirmed that El Niño — the Pacific Ocean warming pattern that disrupts weather worldwide — is behind the unusually sticky conditions across the country this month, and the effect isn't going anywhere fast.

The numbers are striking. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are running 2.3°C to 3°C above seasonal norms, and this El Niño event is shaping up to be the strongest on record. The NCM gives it a 96% chance of persisting through March 2027. For the Arabian Peninsula, the knock-on effect is a dome of high pressure sitting over the region, trapping heat and keeping temperatures elevated well past the point when autumn relief usually arrives.

For October specifically, the NCM forecasts an average UAE temperature of 29.7°C — above the long-term average — with mean maximum relative humidity hitting 78%. That combination is what makes it feel relentlessly muggy: 29°C with near-saturated air is far less comfortable than the same number in a dry climate. Anyone who has sweated through a short walk between metro station and hotel this month will recognise the feeling.

There's a timeline to plan around. The peak of this El Niño is forecast for October–November 2026, so the next few weeks will likely stay warmer than normal, with effects lingering through February 2027 and residual impacts through April. On the flip side, the NCM notes rainfall could also exceed usual levels — worth keeping an eye on if you're travelling in winter, when the UAE occasionally gets dramatic downpours that disrupt outdoor plans and, famously, the roads.

For travellers, the practical read is simple: don't count on an early cool-down if you're heading to the Emirates this autumn. Pack and plan as you would for late summer — indoor attractions, early mornings and evenings outside, and air-conditioned midday breaks. The upside is that hotel prices in October–November are typically gentler than the December–January high season, and by late winter the weather should return to the pleasant, sunny norm that makes the UAE such a reliable cold-weather escape.

Story via What's On Dubai